Category Archives: parliament
Britain needs electoral reform but the abolition of first past the post (FPTP) is not the answer
Robert Henderson
As parties outside the British political mainstream garner more and more support the call for electoral reform will increase.. It is not simply that the coming general election will produce a House of Commons whose representation will be radically different from the votes cast , because that has long been a feature of the British electoral system. What is different this time is the number of smaller parties such as Ukip and the Greens who will gain significant electoral support but few MPs . The position is further complicated by the unbalanced devolution which allows non-English seat MPs to sit in the Commons and vote on English matters while English seat MPs cannot vote on the issues which have been devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
After the election there are likely to be renewed calls for some form of PR to replace FPTP for Westminster elections. This would be a mistake because it would simply be to swap one unsatisfactory electoral system for another.
There are two major problems with any form of PR:
(1) The link between the parliamentary representative and a constituency is necessarily broken. There are mixed systems with some members elected for constituencies and some from a party list, but they are very messy and do not thoroughly address the main objection to FPTP, namely, the failure to produce representatives in proportion to the votes cast nationally.
(2) Experience shows that where proportional systems exist the political classes almost invariably transmute into conspiracies against the electorate. This happens because majorities for one party are rare and where there is a situation of more or less permanent coalition no party can stand on a meaningful manifesto for the obvious reason that no government will deliver on any party’s manifesto or come close to it unless a coalition is comprised of parties whose policies are next to identical. This means politicians can rarely be held to account for failing to deliver.
It is also true that many forms of PR are complex compared with FPTP and the types of PR which would be likely to be adopted are the ones which would have fair degree of complexity, for example, the Standard Transferrable Vote. Such a system would confuse a significant part of the electorate – ten percent of the UK population have IQs of 80 or less – which could drive those people away from participating in elections. Nor is it clear that having first and second or even more preferences invariably produces something closer to what the electorate wants. As I pointed out above, it is rare for any two candidates, even those of the major parties, to represent policies which overall are similar enough to make the second choice a really satisfying option.
What would be better than PR?
I suggest Britain retains the first past the post system with MPs representing the people who elect them, but moves from single-member constituencies to double-member constituencies . This would have dissolve much of the objection to FPTP as it is now and bring additional benefits.
How would it work? Each constituency would have roughly double the size of the present constituencies. Only one member from each political party would be able to stand in each double constituency. The two candidates with the most votes in each constituency would be elected regardless of how far behind the leading candidate the second candidate came. Second or additional preferences would not exist. People would simply vote for a single candidate as they do now. The beneficial effects of such a system would be:
- a) It would undermine the idea of safe seats. There would still be constituencies which returned one party over and over again, but there would be a second MP to elect who would be of a different party.
- b) the constituency connection of the voter and MP would be maintained .
- c) Electors would be able to vote for the candidate they favoured with a greater chance of getting them elected. If the voter favoured one of the two presently major parties there would be a very strong chance that their chosen candidate would be one of the two candidates sent to the Commons. But even electors who voted for the lesser parties would have some real expectation in many constituencies of success for their chosen candidate, because there are many constituencies where the second party in a constituency is not Tory or Labour. In addition, the fact that those coming second in an election could be elected on a substantially smaller vote than those coming first would increase the likelihood of minor party candidates being elected. Moreover, once such a system was up and running and electors saw how it worked the patterns of voting could and almost certainly would begin to change with more and more people being willing to risk voting for a smaller party.
- d) Such constituencies would allow for MPs of radically different views to represent the same set of electors. This would mean most electors would be able to have an MP to represent them whose party policies bore some resemblance to the policies the elector supported. Even if an elector was in a constituency which had two MPs of similar views but different parties, the elector would still have a choice of two MPs to go to for help and advice.
- e) Because two MPs from different parties would be elected in each constituency and there is greater opportunity for minor party MPs or even independent MPs being elected, the relationship between votes cast and MPs elected for each of the parties would be much closer than it is under the FPTP system we now have now. However, unlike PR the double-member constituency would not only mitigate rather than remove entirely the disproportion between votes cast and seats obtained under single-member constituencies. This is worth tolerating because it is unlikely that the double-constituency system would produce a Commons in the undesirable state of permanent coalition because it would retain a real possibility for single party governments. In terms of party representation and electoral support it would be a halfway house between what we have now and the conspiracy of permanent coalition which is virtually guaranteed by any form of PR
Other changes to improve alter the balance of power
Other changes to alter the balance of power between voters and politicians to favour electors should be made:
Institute a power to for electors to recall of MPs through a referendum conducted in their constituency.
Citizen initiated referenda on the Swiss model, with tight legal underpinning to ensure that politicians abide by the result of a referendum and take the necessary practical steps to ensure that the will of the electors is realised .
Not perfect, but probably the best which can be done
What I propose would not entirely remove the anomalies and unfairness found in our present FPTP system, but it would remove most of the poison in the system by giving smaller parties much greater opportunity to gain Commons seats whilst retaining the good things such as constituency representation and the simplicity of the system.
It is worth adding that a significant part of Britain’s present electoral deficiencies stem substantially from Britain’s membership of the EU (which increasingly constrains what her major political parties can offer by way of policy) and the imbalance of the present devolution settlement which leaves England out in the cold. If Britain left the EU and switched to a true federal system which included an English Parliament that in itself would make the present British system function more democratically and would enhance the benefits of the double-member solution I propose.
Who will speak for England?
Robert Henderson
It is a singular thing that the question of English votes for English laws let alone an English Parliament has gone almost unmentioned during the 2015 general election. There has been a great deal of noise made by the Tories about the threat offered to England by the SNP in coalition with Labour , but precious little if anything has been said about how the SNP threat could be neutralised entirely by establishing a federal system for the UK. This would require an English Parliament, something which could be created quickly and with little extra expense by simply allowing MPs for English seats to sit as the English Parliament. The few UK federal policies such as defence, management of the Pound and foreign affairs could be dealt with by representatives from the four home countries sitting as a federal Parliament in the House of Lords.
Such an arrangement would remove the SNP’s ability to operate as Irish MPs under leaders such as Charles Stewart Parnell and John Redmond operated before the Great War when Irish MPs sitting at Westminster supported liberal governments and in return pressured the Liberal Party top grant Home Rule for Ireland.
Stripped of their ability to interfere with English affairs the SNP would lose any meaningful power over English politicians. They could of course continue to seek independence or at least more and more powers until they were on the brink of becoming independent, but there would be a great difference in the way such ambitions were treated by English politicians. There would no longer be an incentive for English politicians to pander to the Scots, as they now do in the most craven fashion, because the great prizes in UK politics would be to become the Prime Minister of England (or whatever the position might be called) and take part in the government of England. As the government of England would be decided only by the English electorate, there would be no need to make compromises with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland which would affect English interest adversely.
There would also be a general change in mentality amongst English MPs because they would have an English Parliament with an English electorate to satisfy. English politicians of necessity would have to look to English interests before the domestic interests of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland . Most importantly, the Barnett Formula that determines Treasury disbursements (which favours not only Scotland but Wales and Northern Ireland over England) would be unsustainable.
The extent to which England is disadvantaged by the formula is startling. In 2013 the Treasury funding for each home country was as follows:
- Ireland £10,876 per head (£2,347 more than England)
Scotland £10,152 per head (£1,623 more than England)
Wales £9,709 per head (£1,180 more than England)
England £8,529 per head
The ONS estimates of each home country’s population for mid-2014 are:
England 53.9 million
Scotland 5.3 million
Wales 3.1 million
- Ireland 1.8 million
If the per capita Treasury payments to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2013 had been reduced to those received by England, the money paid to these three home countries would have been reduced by:
Scotland £8.6 billion
Wales £3.6 billion
- Ireland £ 4.2 billion
Grand total of reduced payments £16.4 billion.
Such a reduction would be a very sharp wake up call for those wishing to break up the United Kingdom. It would give them a taste of what independence would mean.
If there was such a reduction, the SNP would doubtless keep chanting their mantra about the oil and gas extracted in British waters being Scotland’s oil and gas. But even if all the oil and gas in the North Sea was in Scottish waters, which it is not, it would be a poor argument because while Scotland is part of a nation state called the United Kingdom, the oil and gas around British waters is not Scottish oil and gas but the United Kingdom’s oil and gas. They also need to bear in mind that oil and gas revenues have only flowed since 1980, so there is the previous 273 years since 1707 to be accounted for, much of which time Scotland was Churchmouse poor and produced little by way of tax revenue. Moreover, oil and gas extraction from Scottish waters is expensive compared with much of the oil and gas being extracted elsewhere and consequently very vulnerable if the price of oil drops below $100 a barrel. If the price remains as low as it is now, hovering around the $50-60 dollar a barrel mark, even the most naïve Scot would begin to worry about basing Scottish independence on oil and gas revenues as heavily as the SNP do now.
Apart from the Barnett Formula abolition, the Scots might well find that with an English Parliament the English did such things as taking the SNP at its word about wanting rid of the Trident nuclear submarine base in Scotland and removed the base to England with the thousands of jobs which go with it and decide to repatriate English public sector jobs administering services such as English welfare payments and taxation which have been sent to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Faced with an English Parliament looking after English interests first, the prospect of Scottish independence could fade rapidly. The problem is no party in this election which is likely to win seats is proposing an English Parliament and only two -UKIP (see the Political Reform section) and the Tories – support the idea of English votes for English laws. Even there the Tories are ambiguous about exactly how far their proposal would go in stopping non-English seat MPs voting on English only laws, not least because while the Barnett formula exists – which it would continue to do while there was no English Parliament to cut the Gordian knot of a misshapen devolution settlement – – there would be few bills of any significance which did not have direct implications for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland because their funding is linked to English funding.: England gets more money for something; the other three home countries get a proportional increase. Even the strictest possible interpretation of what was an English only measure was adopted, the problem with non-English seat MPs pressuring a party without an overall majority in the Commons to grant favours to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would remain. Moreover, under English votes for English laws, it would not be the English seat MPs only who initiated English-only legislation.
Labour and the Lib Dems are resolutely opposed to any form of devolved power for England as a nation and are attempting to fudge the question of the imbalance in the present devolution settlement which leaves England out on a limb by Balkanising England by giving power to local and regional bodies in England with the Lib Dems having the particularly fatuous idea ”devolution on demand” whereby local areas ask for devolved powers with the consequence of this being a superfluity of differences between parts of England.
Patently, England’s interests are being wilfully neglected in this election. Is there really no one in British politics who will call for an English Parliament, no one who will speak for England?
Devolution and the House of Lords
Robert Henderson
There is one important aspect of the devolution mess created since 1997 which receives little or no attention in the mainstream media or from mainstream politicians, namely, the role of the House of Lords. As things stand all legislation which affects England goes through the Lords, while ever increasing swathes of legislation affecting Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland avoid such scrutiny because the legislation is initiated, debated, amended and either passed or not at the will of the three devolved assemblies. Yet another instance of how England is grossly disadvantaged by the unbalanced devolution in Britain.
Many will shrug their shoulders and say what does it matter, isn’t the Lords just a talking shop with no power? The answer is an emphatic no. Government ministers sit in the Lords, the House can initiate their own Bills, amend or strike down completely Bills sent to them by the House of Commons ,ask questions orally and in writing, including questions of ministers, sit on their own select committees and on joint committees of the Lords and Commons . Members also have the great privilege of a national political platform to get their views to the public.
The power of the Lords to delay
The sharpest power the Lords has is to delay. This can be achieved by being tardy over their examination of Bills sent to them by the Commons, by heavily amending Bills sent to them by the Commons (this means they have to go back to the Commons for re-consideration) and by refusing outright to pass Bills. (There is one important exception to the power of the Lords to amend or refuse outright to pass Bills from the Commons and that is what are called money Bills, legislation which involves the collection or spending of money by the government. Such Bills have to be signed off as Money Bills by the Speaker. )
If the Lords does refuse to pass a Bill from the Commons in its entirety or in part, the 1949 Parliament Act allows the Commons to force through a Bill regardless of the wishes of the Lords in the session of Parliament in which the Bill was originally introduced into the Common. This procedure typically results in a delay of around a year. When the Bill is reintroduced it is passed without the Lords having any opportunity to delay it further. This is a very rare procedure with only seven Acts have been passed in this way either under the 1949 Parliament Act or its 1911 predecessor.
Being able to delay Bills sent from the Commons is a powerful weapon because government legislation may be lost for want of Parliamentary time if an election is looming or a session of Parliament (which normally lasts a year) is coming to an end and other government business takes priority in the new session. Even if time is not absolutely pressing, governments are generally anxious to get their legislation through quickly and will often accept a Lords’ amendment to Bills sent from the Commons simply to get the legislation passed quickly.
The political composition of the House of Lords
“As at 16 December 2014, the total membership of the House of Lords was 847. However, excluding those currently ineligible to sit (such as members on leave of absence or those holding particular posts), the ‘actual’ membership was 791. The average attendance of the House of Lords in the 2013–14 session was 497.”
The 791 Members eligible to sit in the House of consisted of 679 Life Peers, 86 ‘excepted hereditary’ Peers and 26 Bishops. Their political allegiances, where declared, were:
Conservative 230
Labour 216
Liberal Democrat 105
Crossbench 180
Bishops 26
Even on the declared allegiances the House is heavily tilted toward the liberal left who are instinctively anti-English. Not only do Labour and the Libdems have a majority together over the Conservatives, those who take the Tory whip will more often than not have much the same politics as the Labour and LibDem peers . As for the officially politically non-aligned, it is reasonable to assume that most of the Bishops will also be of liberal left because the upper reaches of the Anglican Church has long shown themselves to be consistently left of centre with their unwavering support for political correctness . The crossbenchers will also have a healthy component from the liberal left simply because they are selected by those who generally subscribe to political correctness with the consequence that they will do the very human thing of selecting those who resemble themselves.
The geographical spread and size of the of the Lords is very important. Peers can come from any part of the United Kingdom and there is no limit to their number. This means that the Lords could easily become imbalanced, if it is not already so, by the creation of disproportionately large numbers of peers who were not English. Moreover, because peers are not elected , in principle, a government could create any number of new peers to push through legislation which is damaging to English interests, for example, to Balkanise England with regional assemblies regardless of the wishes of the English.
Less dramatically, because of the power to delay and force compromise from a government, it is easy to see how a House of Lords which was against England controlling its own affairs could cause considerable difficulties if the Commons voted , for example, to end the Barnett formula or to set up an English Parliament simply by delaying matters, for example, if General Election was due in less than a year’s time and sufficient numbers in the Lords thought there was a fair bet that the election would result in a change of government.
If England had English votes for English Laws
Would English votes for English laws solve the constitutional imbalance? The idea raises many problems such as how to define what is English only legislation while the Barnett Formula is in place because the Formula determines what Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland gets from the UK Treasury because it is linked to government spending in England. But the Lords adds another complication because the proposal as it has been suggested to date makes no mention of removing from the Lords’ the power of scrutiny of any House of Commons Bills which are deemed English only Bills. If that were the case then there would still be the anomaly that the Lords could interfere with English only legislation while having no power to intervene over the equivalent legislation for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland .
The difficulty could be surmounted by giving English only laws the same status as money Bills but in reality, only an English Parliament and a truly federal constitution for each of the four home countries will permanently solve the problem of the imbalance of the present devolution settlement.
Devolving powers to Manchester is the thin end of the Balkanising of England wedge
Robert Henderson
The government have recently announced the passing of responsibility for the £6 billion of NHS money spent in the Greater Manchester area to a consortium of ten local councils. This is in addition to the creation of a Mayor for Greater Manchester and the devolved powers granted to Greater Manchester in November which are intended to place around £1 billion in the same local government hands by 2019 to administer new powers over transport, house building, skills training and the police (the Mayor will replace the police commissioner). Contrary to some reports The Mayor will not have formal responsibility for the NHS and Care budget spending, but will probably exert some unofficial influence in those areas.
Greater Manchester is to have an elected mayor foisted upon it despite voted against having one in 2012 with the Tory minister responsible Grant Shapps stating at the time of the referendum that “People should have the right to decide how they are governed in their local area. The whole point is to give people a say. No-one is forcing mayors on anyone.” That one is being imposed now tells you all you need to know about the real attitude of the coalition government and their commitment to local democracy. It is a case of you can vote anyway you like provided we approve of your choice. Shades of the EU’s way with referenda which do not go their way.
All of this has got nothing to do with improving local services and everything to do with fudging the issue of devolution in England. Our political elite are utterly determined that England will not have a Parliament or government to represent her national interests. Labour and the LibDems are reliant on Welsh and Scots MPs for a significant number of their Commons seats and are concerned that an English Parliament and government could seriously upset the UK political apple-cart by forcing the reduction of the per capita Treasury funding for Scotland, Wales and N Ireland, for example, by reducing it to the per capita funding for England (that would take around £16 billion a year away from the Celtic Fringe at present).
This shifting of powers to an English region is the beginning of a process which all three major Westminster parties in one form or another all support. The policy has two great advantages for the Tories, Labour and LibDems. It allows them to claim however absurdly that the imbalance in the UK devolution settlement has been addressed and creates political institutions which once granted would be very difficult to abolish.
The mere existence of regional political institutions with differing powers would be a great barrier to an English Parliament and government. Such devolution would create a patchwork of differing powers and provide a ready-made argument for why England should not have her own Parliament, namely, that an English Parliament would not be able to legislate on a great swathe of policies because so much had been devolved to the regions and so varied are the different devolved powers that no meaningful national legislation on those policies would be possible.
Apart from the Balkanising effect on England, there are the practical effects which would be obnoxious. Because it would be impossible to have such devolution throughout the country so inevitably differences in service offered and the rules under which it is offered would arise. The post-code lottery already afflicting much of public service, especially in NHS provision, would be greatly amplified. There would also be an ugly battle for resources by different regions.
There is a further good practical reason why such devolution is wrong-headed: the quality of both local politicians and their senior officers is generally poor. If anyone doubts this go and attend a few local council meetings and committees. They simply would not be up to the job of administering such responsibilities. If local authorities whether singly or in concert as is proposed in Manchester are given extensive new borrowing powers there is every chance they will behave recklessly and run up debts which they could not service and central government would have to bail them out. Spain is a gruesome example of such misbehaviour by devolved governments.
The fact that it is Greater Manchester which is receiving the extra powers rather than individual councils or even just the councils for the city of Manchester suggests that what is being aimed at is a surreptitious resurrection of the goal of Balkanising England which was so roundly rejected in 2004 under Blair’s premiership.
Regional bodies such as those proposed for Greater Manchester will have some ostensible democratic respectability because their members will be drawn from elected councils. But this democratic respectability will be specious if there is a Mayor of Greater Manchester who is not attached to any council heading the consortium. Individual councillors from each council will have little if any influence because you can bet the Mayor will form a council of the leaders of the component councils which will proceed to stitch up deals that are then presented as a fait accompli to the individual councillors. Anyone who has had experience of a council which has adopted the “cabinet” system will be only too well aware of how councillors who are not part of the cabinet are left virtually powerless to affect any council policy or behaviour because they are effectively excluded from decision making.
Scottish Welsh and Northern Irish politicians will welcome such devolution within England because it lessens the opportunity for England to exert its natural power in the Union by making a national voice for England less likely. However, they could find it a wrong-headed move if English regions start demanding some of the additional exchequer funding over and above that provided to England that the Celts currently receive.
These new powers for Manchester are not a done deal because the Tory Party may well not be in power after the General Election in May. Certainly in the case of the devolution of NHS power Labour have made it clear that they do not want it to happen with the Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham rejecting the NHS Proposal viz:
“If I was health secretary I wouldn’t be offering this deal.”
“My worry is having a ‘swiss cheese’ effect in the NHS whereby cities are opting out.”
“This deal is only being offered to certain parts of the country too and there’s a real concern that it could cause a two-tier service and challenge the notion of a National Health Service.”
What is proposed for Manchester is the thin end of the Balkanising of England wedge. It needs to be opposed on principle.
England could be Balkanised by stealth after the 2015 General Election
Robert Henderson
It is quite clear what the strategy is of all Westminster Parties apart from the Tories and Ukip : they are desperate to Balkanise England. English votes for English laws (EVEL) will not work for practical reasons such as who decides on what is an exclusively English law and the differing powers granted to the Scottish parliament and Welsh and Northern Ireland Assemblies. But it is probably necessary for it to be tried and to be seen to fail before the only honest constitutional solution – an English Parliament – is accepted by the Tories.
The danger is that the next Westminster Parliament will result in either a Labour majority government because of the scandalous way constituency sizes are weighted to favour Labour and the fact that the Labour vote is more concentrated in certain constituencies than that of other parties or , much more probably, a motley coalition between Labour, the LibDems, the Greens and most poisonously the SNP, who could well return 20-30 MPs to the Commons.
We could find after the general election that a Labour government or a Labour led coalition would not only deny England EVEL, but would enforce some form a devolution upon England, most probably by devolving significant powers to greater metropolitan areas such as Greater Manchester, which would effectively be English regional government by subterfuge. This increase in the complexity of the allocation of powers in England would emasculate any future attempt at EVEL and by leaving as little as possible of English administration at the Westminster level, would make an English parliament an ever more remote possibility because the less power it would have the less press there would be for a parliament.
Once powers had been devolved within England the new regional political classes they would spawn would provide a serious barrier to taking back their powers and returning them to Westminster. Such regional powers would also set the parts of a balkanised England against one another and the populations of the various regions would in time begin to defend what their region has rather than considering the national English interest.
The Westminster Parties which want England to be Balkanised do so in the knowledge that there is absolutely no appetite for a developed England, a fact recently confirmed by an Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) report The Future of England Survey 2014. Their motives are driven by crude party advantage in the case of Labour and the Libdems which both rely heavily on Scottish and Welsh MPs to make up their numbers in the House of Commons and a desire by all the pro Balkanisation of England supporters to hamstring England to prevent her looking out for her own interests – which would include stopping the English subsidy to the rest of the UK – because they fear that it would be greatly to their disadvantage. There is also more than a little sheer anti-English feeling as is exemplified even in their leading politicians who in the case of those from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland never cease to bang the victimhood drum over the wicked English colonial overlord.
Some MPs sitting for English seats join in the insult of the English, most notably the senior Labour politician Jack Straw who was Home Secretary during the Blair Government. On a BBC programme in 2000 Straw stated that the English are “potentially very aggressive, very violent” that England had used their “propensity to violence to subjugate Ireland, Wales and Scotland”
If anti-English Balkanising government is elected to Westminster next year without a majority of English seats there would be a dangerous constitutional situation where the English are effectively being misgoverned according to the dictates of the Celtic Fringe MPs. That could be the point where the patience of the English public runs out.
The Only Fair Constitutional Settlement For All Is The Same Settlement For All!
We must put an end to the outrageously racist approach to constitutional settlements in the UK. I say racist because heretofore any settlement has used racial characteristics like ethnicity or identity for determining who gets what settlement, if any. The … Continue reading
How Scotland said no
Robert Henderson
Great is the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the independence side as they try to come to terms with rejection in the Scottish referendum. The Scots National Party (SNP) politicians and much of the mainstream media are trying to portray this as a great result because 1.6 million voted to leave the UK, with many of this motley crew claiming that the result gave the independence supporting politicians a mandate to bargain for greater devolved powers. But try as they may there is no disguising that a 55% to 45% result is a thumping win for the Unionist side in a two horse race.
The win is even better than it looks because of the grotesque ineptitude of Cameron and the Better Together side which handed Salmond a platter full of goodies to boost the pro-independence vote.
Cameron spinelessly accepted these conditions when he signed the Edinburgh Agreement with Salmond :
- A referendum which excluded the rest of the UK.
- The referendum to go forward without the terms of separation being agreed. (The terms should have been agreed and put to the rest of the UK in a referendum before being put to the Scots).
- A simple majority to decide the referendum rather than a super-majority, for example, 70% of those voting or 60% of the entire electorate. Such super-majorities are reasonable when the matter at issue is of such profound importance.
- The referendum to be held in 2014 which is the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn. This allowed Salmond to tie the anniversary celebrations to the referendum. In addition, if there had been a YES vote, holding the referendum in 2014 would have created immense practical problems because , unless Parliament extended its life, there could only be seven months after the referendum before a general election had to be held. After a YES vote that election could easily have returned a House of Commons which was very different from the present one. There could have been a Commons with a Labour government or Labour in coalition with parties other than the Tories with very different ideas to the present coalition government of what should be agreed with Holyrood. It is also plausible that the Tories could have come back with a solid majority if the electorate thought they were the party least likely to give too much to Scotland.
- The voting age of the electorate for the referendum being reduced to 16.
- The Scottish parliament to frame the referendum question . The question “Should Scotland be an independent country? was clearly biased because voters had to mark the ballot paper YES or NO . Yes is an hooray word and NO a boo word . It was an elementary framing error. The question should have been put in such a way as to avoid YES and NO, for example, with two questions such as “Do you want Scotland to be part of the UK?” and Do you want Scotland to leave the UK?” with a blank box beside both in which a cross could be put. (It tells you a great deal about Electoral Commission that it passed the wording of such an obviously flawed question)
Those are the strategic mistakes. There was also many errors of presentation:
- Cameron began the process by going to Edinburgh to conclude what became the Edinburgh Agreement. This was a mistake because a politician who goes to treat on another politician’s home ground will be seen as subordinate. It was particularly absurd behaviour in this case because Salmond wanted something from Cameron. He was the supplicant but it was Cameron who behaved as a supplicant.
- The placing of the Better Together campaign in the hands of the Labour Party. This meant the game was played according to Salmond’s rules, because Labour is heavily dependent on Scotland to provide MPs and is one of the main players in the Scottish Parliament. Consequently, the Better Together spokesmen were constantly treading on eggshells in case their behaviour rebounded not merely on the Better Together campaign but Labour’ fortunes generally. The exclusion from the Better Together campaign of political voices who were not Scots reinforced this problem. Because it was wall to wall Scots being put up by the Better Together campaign, those who acted as its spokesmen lived in terror of being accused of being a traitor or Quisling or generally slighting Scotland. This meant they were constantly lauding the great qualities of Scotland and the Scots whilst saying by implication that Scotland were not fit to rule itself. The absence of non-Scottish voices also meant that there was no balance whatsoever to the frankly over-the-top representation of the human resources of the country both past and present. There was no Better Together speaker who simply gave the pros and cons of the debate without encasing it in Scottish patriotic mantras.
- The choice of Alastair Darling as head of Better Together. If there was a turning point against the NO campaign it was Darling’s dire performance in his second debate with Salmond.
- The Unionist politicians’ response to a single poll two weeks from the ballot showing the YES camp marginally ahead was unalloyed panic as Cameron, Clegg and Miliband all suddenly headed for Scotland promising Scotland the Earth, including the preservation in apparent perpetuity of the Barnett Formula. Such promises were bogus because only the Westminster Parliament can sanction such promises and no Parliament can bind a successor. This made the NO camp look both dishonest and lacking in character (Frankly, these are not people with whom you would want to be with in a tight corner).
To these errors can be added points which remained unmade and questions unasked by the Better Together representatives which would have seriously embarrassed the YES side:
– Salmond’s claim that Scotland has part ownership of the Pound. This is a literal nonsense. The legal position is very simple: the Pound Sterling is the English currency. Scotland gained the right to share it when they signed the Treaty of Union. If they leave the Union they forfeit that right because the Treaty and the subsequent Acts of Union will no longer operate.
– Salmond’s threat to default on taking a proportionate share of the UK national debt if they do not get a currency union. This is a non-starter because Scottish independence is dependent on the Westminster Parliament repealing the Act of Union.
– Why on Earth did no one on the Better Together side not ask Salmond the question “Who will be Scotland’s lender of the last resort if there is Sterlingisation?” A simple question but one Salmond would not have been able to evade.
– The startling failure of the NO camp to expose s the bogus nature of the “independence” Salmond was chasing by mentioning the out-of-the-frying-pan-into-the-fire result of Scotland joining the EU. This was down to the fact that all the Westminster politicos involved in the NO campaign are bound by their devotion to the EU not to mention the UK’s subordination to the EU at all costs. To accuse Salmond of seeking to go from emersion in the UK to emersion in the EIU, quite probably within the Euro, would be to admit that the UK is not independent but a prisoner of the EU.
The influence of the pollsters
The polls seriously understated the noes. The last YouGov Poll (taken after people had voted) gave the No camp a lead of six points. Earlier polls had veered wildly (although only two showed the YES camp in the lead). During the campaign pollsters were suggesting margins of error as high as six either way which means a span of 12 points. A margin of error of two either way is reasonable, three is just about acceptable, but anything larger simply means the poll is next to worthless.
Why did pollsters get it so wrong? Many polls these days are conducted through the internet rather than by phone or even better face to face. These are based on cohorts of those of different social and economic status, age, gender and ethnicity whose details are held by the company. The sample for a poll is drawn from this database. This produces a built in bias because it only draws its samples from those who are computer literate and have access to a computer. This will under-represent the poor generally and older people in particular, the latter being much less likely to use computers but more likely to vote and vote NO in this particular poll.
The second thing understating the noes was the intimidatory atmosphere towards NO voters in which the referendum was conducted. Although there may have been rough stuff on both the YES and NO sides, the balance of misbehaviour was heavily on the YES side. For example, there were widespread complaints in the mainstream media about the vandalising of NO posters and plenty of examples where NO supporters were shouted down, often with accusations of being traitors or Quislings . There was little of this type of behaviour reported in the mainstream media involving NO supporters . It is easy to see how NO supporters could be wary of advertising who they were supporting.
Even where polls are accurate, there is a very strong case for banning polling during any campaign involving an official ballot because of the natural herd mentality within humans in the mass. They undoubtedly influence voting behaviour. In this referendum the case for banning polls was made a good deal stronger by the their lack of veracity. This had its most dramatic effect when a single poll showing the YES camp marginally ahead panicked the leaders of the three major UK parties into making promises to the Scots which they did not have the power to keep and which by their nature would have severely damaged English interests had such promises been kept. A clearer example of polling influencing a public vote would be difficult to find.
Why did the Noes win?
In the end the primary reason was the fact that the YES side to often offered the voters little more than emotion on which to base their decision. No matter what facts were provided by the NO side, no matter what questions were asked, the YES side effectively stopped their ears and shouted that they weren’t listening.
The three major Westminster parties stated that there would be no currency union, the Yes side said it was just a bluff (it should be remembered that Salmond was booed during his first debate with Alastair Darling when he repeatedly refused to answer the question). When Salmond said Scotland would not take on a proportionate share of the UK’s national debt if there was no currency union he refused to engage with those who pointed out that it would be treated as a default with serious consequences for Scotland’s ability to borrow on the international markets and allegedly said “What are they [the rest of the UK] going to do, invade us?”. When senior EU figures said that Scotland would have difficulty in joining the EU at all or on the terms the YES camp claimed would be available, essentially those which Scotland enjoys part of the UK, these objections were waved away as being of no account. Whilst saying Scotland would remain part of NATO the Yes side insisted not only that the British nuclear deterrent must be removed from Scottish soil, seemingly oblivious to the fact that NATO membership, while not requiring nuclear capability of its members, commits them to collective responsibility if NATO uses nuclear weapons, for example, in the circumstances of a nuclear strike having occurred on a NATO member.
Those were the headline issues to which the YES camp had no sensible answer or strategy, but there were many more questions – defence, immigration, pensions (both public and private) and welfare and suchlike – which were left in limbo by the YES camp’s bluster.
Alongside a failure to provide meaningful answers to important questions, there was an unsavoury side to the YES campaign which became nastier as the vote approached with both routine intimidation of NO supporters and threats such as those made by the SNP’s former deputy leader Jim Sellars that Scottish businesses supporting the NO side would face “a day of reckoning” if there was a YES vote. Nor did it help that Salmond and co were presenting directly or by implication NO voters as unpatriotic, a tactic encapsulated in their description of YES voters as “Team Scotland That will have had an effect.
Doubtless the natural inclination to preserve the status quo and the warnings by the NO side of dire consequences if there was a YES vote for everything from the currency would use to the price of goods in Scottish supermarkets had an effect but as these were present throughout the campaign it is reasonable to believe they were of secondary importance to the way the YES camp presented themselves.
The YES camp made the mistake of thinking that a single strategy – appeals to the emotion through patriotism – would be enough. That was effective with those emotionally vulnerable to such pleas but it offered little to anyone willing to think about the consequences of independence. It is perhaps significant that the wealthier and better educated voters favoured NO, while the poorer and less educated favoured YES . The poor are less likely to have voted, something shown by the lowest turnout in the referendum (75%) being in Glasgow, by far the largest electoral district in Scotland. There were not enough people with whom the patriotism drum resonated who also took the trouble to vote.
All you could ever want to know about Scottish independence
Note: These are all the Independence blog posts to date in one place for easy access. Robert Henderson
The Scottish independence referendum – The second STV debate 2nd Sept 2014
Salmond vs Darling round 2 – The shameless chancer versus the trembling incompetent
Alex Salmond is a chancer in the mould of Paterson and Law
Federal Trust meeting: Devolution in England: A New Approach – Balkanising England By Stealth
Alex Salmond’s attempt to disown the UK national debt should be a non-starter
Scottish Independence – How Cameron sold England down the river with the Edinburgh Agreement
BBC drama goes in to bat for Scottish independence
What happens if Scotland votes NO to independence?
Frank Field calls for an English Parliament on Any Questions
What the British people want from their politicians … and what they get
SNP 2013 XMAS INDEPENDENCE NOVELTIES
The Scottish Independence Referendum – unanswered questions
The future of England
The BBC way with Scottish independence
Suppressing scandal – The Mayor of London’s State of London Debate 12 June 2013
SNP 2012 XMAS Novelties
The English voice on Scottish independence must be heard
The English white working-class and the British elite – From the salt of the earth to the scum of the earth
Bring the Nuclear Deterrent to England now
It must be no to Devomax
Salmond’s proposed referendum question is heavily biased
An “independent” Scotland must not be allowed to have the pound as their official currency
SNP 2011 XMAS Novelties
The complete “Wages of Scottish independence”
The wages of Scottish independence – England, Wales and Northern Ireland must be heard
The wages of Scottish independence – If Parliament says NO
The wages of Scottish independence – infrastructure
The wages of Scottish independence – membership of the EU
The wages of Scottish independence – The monarchy
The wages of Scottish independence – immigration
The wages of Scottish independence – Public Debt
The wages of Scottish independence – the currency problem
The wages of Scottish independence – the loss of the military
The wages of Scottish independence – public sector employment
The truth about UK oil and gas
Make sure the costs of Scottish independence get into the media
Scottish independence? Yes, but only on these terms
The Scottish independence referendum – The second STV debate 2nd Sept 2014
Robert Henderson
The full debate can be found at http://player.stv.tv/programmes/yes-or-no/
Better Together panel
Douglas Alexander Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary and MP
Kezia Dugdale Scottish Labour Shadow Party Education spokesman and MSP
Ruth Davidson Leader of the Scottish Conservatives and MSP
YES Scotland panel
Nicola Sturgeon Deputy First Minister (SNP) and MSP
Elaine C Smith Convenor of Scottish Independence Convention
Patrick Harvie Co-Convener of the Scottish Green Party and MSP
Presenter Bernard Ponsonby
The debate was divided into opening and closing statements by Alexander and Sturgeon with three sections in which one representative from the Better Together and Yes camps was put up to answer questions. There was a fourth section which was the audience asking questions which could be put to any member of the two panels at the presenter’s discretion.
It was a more edifying spectacle than the Darling-Salmond shouting matches. This was largely but not wholly due to the difference in programme structure , which included much more audience participation, had six voices rather than two to be accommodated and excluded formal questioning of each other by the two sides. This removed much of the opportunity for the unseemly squabbling which had tainted the Darling-Salmond debates.
To the difference in programme structure improving matters can be added the absence of Salmond, , who was primarily responsible for the way the Darling-Salmond debates deteriorated into incoherence as the two politicians repeatedly spoke over one another. Darling is not naturally shouty and was provoked into behaving out of character by Salmond’s toxic behaviour. It is also true that Douglas Alexander was a vast improvement on Darling, both in his persona, which was relaxed and controlled, and in the quietly reasonable way he answered questions. However, his effectiveness was curtailed because the format of the show meant Alexander remained silent for much of the time.
Of the others Dugdale was nervously gabbling, Davidson attempted to give factual answers , but spoke too quickly, Elaine Smith was strident and emotional and Harvie supercilious and adolescently idealistic by turns. Listening to Sturgeon was to hear Salmond’s words slavishly repeated by someone else. She even mimicked his practice in the second Darling-Salmond debate of moving from behind her rostrum and wandering about the stage.
Although the debate was much better mannered than the Darling-Salmond encounters, it was not much more informative. There is an inherent problem with public debates where two sides are allowed to make assertions without challenge from any disinterested third party. Even where , as was the case here, the audience were able to ask a good number of questions, little is achieved because there is no sustained questioning of the speakers’ responses. Even where the speakers appeared to be giving hard facts there was no solid challenge to what they claimed. The presenter, with the amusingly incongruous English name of Bernard Ponsonby, made attempts to challenge what was being said, but these interventions rarely went anywhere and appeared more for show rather than a determined attempt to stop the speakers waffling, evading or lying. The upshot was that after the one and three quarter hours the programme ran I doubt whether the studio audience or the viewers were much the wiser about where the truth lay.
The subjects covered were social justice , benefit spending, health and social care, tuition fees, the currency, North Sea oil, the Barnett Formula, domestic violence, the nuclear deterrent, Faslane, defence, the EU and the further powers offered in the event of a NO vote. Because of the number of subjects, they were all dealt with quickly and inevitably superficially. Some questions or points from the audience went unanswered lost in the fog of politician’s waffle.
Only Alexander and Davidson made any real attempt to consistently answer questions with reference to facts. For example, Davidson had a very good point about the startlingly meagre nature of the proposed armed forces put forward in the SNPs white paper on independence. (Go into the recording at 1 hour and 15 minutes). At the point of independence the White Paper proposes that “ Scotland will have a total of 7,500 regular and 2,000 reserve personnel at the point of independence, rising to around 10,000 regulars and 3,500 reserves by the end of the five years following independence” (P237) with the possibility after ten years of 15,000 regulars and 5,000 reserves. (That is for the army navy and airforce of a country whose territory constitutes 30% of the UK).
Judged purely on the information being given by the panellists, the Better Together side was far superior, but the YES mixture of bluster, bald assertion and outright lies was backed up by aggressive audience participation by YES voters which covered the massive gaps in their responses to questions. The NO part of the audience applauded vigorously when good points were made by Better Together, but they did not exude the childlike excitement and joy seen on YES supporters’ faces , which were eerily reminiscent of the sublime inanity of the faces of the hippies in the film Easy Rider.
The extremely large elephant in the room – the interests of the rest of the UK in the referendum – went unmentioned but for one brief comment by Alexander. He pointed out that a vote for independence would give Salmond a mandate to engage in negotiations for the terms of separation, not as the YES camp claimed, a democratic mandate for anything Salmond demanded : “ The sovereign will applies here in Scotland. it can’t bind what would be the sovereign will of what would be a separate country after independence. “ Go into recording at 33 minutes.
To take one example of the rest of the UK’s ignored interests which is of immediate concern , no discussion has taken place about the position of Scottish MPs at Westminster if there is a YES vote. If the General Election takes place in 2015 but Scottish independence not until 2017 (or even later if the negotiations go badly), there would be the absurd situation of Scottish MPs and peers still sitting in Parliament at Westminster, making decisions on English matters. In addition, if Labour win the election but only with the support of Scottish MPs, a Labour Prime Minister could find himself with a majority in the Commons one day and a minority government the next. It would also mean that the terms of independence for Scottish independence would be negotiated by a PM who was arithmetically certain to have to resign after Scottish independence day and was dependent on the Scottish MPs to pass whatever terms were agreed. That would be an incentive to give far too much away to the Scots.
Looking at the three debates together , (the two Darling-Salmond debates and this one) it is astonishing that so many important questions other than the rest of the UK’s interest in the referendum have gone largely or wholly unexamined. Here are some of them:
- The public service jobs which will go south of the border if there is a YES vote. This will be the military ones, including the Trident submarines and missiles at Faslane, plus the considerable number of public service jobs which have been exported from England to Scotland which deal with English matters such as the administration of the English welfare system.
- The position of public sector pensions in Scotland, both those already being drawn and the pension entitlements accrued to the date of independence which have not yet begun to be drawn.
- The condition of private sector pensions in Scotland such as those attached RBS and HBOS. These could very easily default especially if the Bank of England is no longer the lender of the last resort.
- The very heavy reliance of the Scottish economy on taxpayer funded jobs .
- The narrowness of the private sector of the Scottish economy, it being massively dependent on oil and gas, financial services and food and drink.
- Immigration to Scotland.
- Scottish Nationality.
How should the NO campaign have been conducted?
The Better Together campaign has suffered from what is always a fatal flaw: they have built their strategy around appeasement of the Scots. Appeasement can never be a strategy because the appeased always returns for more concessions. Appeasement can only ever be a tactic to buy time, something which does not apply in this context.
The policy of appeasement has meant there has been no input from those who are not Scottish and opposed to the break up of the Union. Any Unionist politician with an English accent has been treated as toxic by the NO campaign. The debate has been entirely about what is best for Scotland. Fear of being accused of being a traitor or Quisling has meant that no honest answer has been given to the challenge put by pro-independents along the lines of “Are you saying that this extremely wealthy and wondrously talented country Scotland cannot be successful as an independent country?” . This is because to suggest that Scotland is anything other than a supremely talented and amazingly wealthy country would bring exactly those accusations. Faced with that dread the NO camp has retreated to the absurd position of agreeing that Scotland is an extremely wealthy and talented country whilst saying that it should not be independent because it would lose so much economically by independence.
The fear of being labelled either a Quisling (if Scottish) or a bully (if an English Westminster politician) has allowed the YES camp in general and Salmond to make absurd statements which have gone effectively unchallenged, for example on these two major issues:
- Salmond’s claim that Scotland has part ownership of the Pound. This is a literal nonsense. The legal position is very simple: the Pound Sterling is the English currency. Scotland gained the right to share it when they signed the Treaty of Union. If they leave the Union they forfeit that right because the Treaty and the subsequent Acts of Union will no longer operate. No one on the pro-union side has made this very obvious point.
- Salmond’s threat to default on taking a proportionate share of the UK national debt if they do not get a currency union. This is a non-starter because Scottish independence is dependent on the Westminster Parliament repealing the Act of Union. Again, no one on the pro-union side has made this very obvious point.
- Sterlingisation. Why on Earth did no one on the Better Together side not ask Salmond the question “Who will be Scotland’s lender of the last resort if there is Sterlingisation?” A simple question but one Salmond would not have been able to evade.
The whole business has been misguided from beginning to end. Granting an independence referendum to be decided simply by those in Scotland when it affected around 90% of the population of the UK was wrong in principle. That error was compounded by the failure to define the terms of independence before the referendum was held. Had the terms been decided before the referendum, it is very doubtful that the referendum would have resulted in a YES vote because Westminster politicians would have been forced to take account of what the electorate in England, Wales and Northern Ireland would tolerate by way of terms for Scotland to secede from the Union. For example, the three major Westminster Parties would have had to make their pledge that there would be no currency union part of the terms, because to agree to a currency union would have left them open to the anger to the electors in England, Wales and Northern Ireland at the idea that the Bank of England (and hence the UK taxpayer) would be the lender of last resort for Scotland.
If the terms had been agreed in advance, ideally these should have been put to a referendum of the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland for their acceptance. But even if that was not done, the fact that a UK general election was to be held in 2015 would have put great pressure on the politicians negotiating the deal with the Scots to not give too much away.
What can be done before the referendum by unionists? Precious little if anything in terms of promoting the positives of the UK because it is simply too late. . What the Westminster parties should not be doing is scrambling around promising an ever more potent version of DEVOMAX. That would be because it will be seen as appeasement and because the closer the DEVOMAX on offer gets to independence, the less reason there is for people to vote NO to get DEVOMAX.
What we have had since the referendum was announced has been the very small Scottish tail wagging the very large English dog. That is both absurd and a betrayal of the 90 per cent of the population who do not live in Scotland.