Category Archives: project fear

17 WEEKS TO 23RD JUNE – UK’S INDEPENDENCE DAY?


17 WEEKS TO 23RD JUNE – UK’S INDEPENDENCE DAY?


Some people have pointed out that the day after the EU Referendum vote on the 23rd June, when hopefully the result will be announced, is the day on which the blockbuster film sequel “Independence Day 2” is being launched. Let’s hope that is a prophetic coincidence!

Now that the referendum campaign has in effect started inevitably we have had the Remain camp talking up “Project Fear” to try and start frightening people to stay within the EU.

Their argument is that leaving the EU is a jump into the unknown by the country and that those in favour of Leave will be unable to say what exactly the deal will be. This is of course true and it is no use denying it, although arguments can be put forward to show that the risk is not really as serious as is being suggested.

Nevertheless since it is true that those in favour of Leave cannot be precise as to what the arrangements will be it is, in my view, necessary for those arguing for Leave to talk about the uncertainties of remaining within the EU

Whilst the BBC etc. have been keen to publicise the uncertainties of Leave what hasn’t been so well publicised is the uncertainties of Remain.

In particular do we want England broken up into the EU “Regions”? Do we want the UK to become twelve EU “Regions” within a Federal EU? Do we want an EU army? Do we want an EU police force? Do we want an EU judicial system? That is if the progress to “ever closer union” continues.

In the alternative there may be a messy breakdown as further problems with the Greek bailout becomes critical again and with the imminence of financial collapse in the Italian banks. Quite apart from those other parts of the EU which look more likely to want to leave, such as France if Marie Le Pen wins the Presidential election next year? What do you think?

I have also been thinking of what slogan would appeal to English nationalists that has people thinking about this kind of issue and I suggest:-

‘Stop the EU breaking up England. Vote to Leave

What do you think?

For English nationalists there is also the very interesting prospect that many of the likely scenarios in the EU Referendum will undermine the UK. Here is an extremely useful and interesting article by Professor Rose of Strathclyde University which sets this out and in which he has crunched the numbers for us:-

Will the EU referendum trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom?


If England drags Scotland out of the EU, there will be trouble. But if Scotland keeps England inside, it could be double.

On the night of the EU referendum, there will be three counts that matter. The first will show whether there is an overall British majority for staying in or leaving the EU. The second will show whether English voters are on the winning or the losing side. The third will show how likely it is that the United Kingdom will stay together.

That might sound drastic to some readers. But large differences in support for the EU among different nations of the UK mean that many potential results are bad for the Union. Unless England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all agree in their answers to the referendum question, factions in each will be able to reject the result as illegitimate.

England contributes five sixths of the British electorate. To produce a UK majority for leaving the EU, regardless of the preference of other Britons, would therefore require 61 percent of English voters to endorse Brexit.

Opinion polls, however, show English voters tend to be evenly divided, and often in favour of Brexit. Even if a British poll reported 51 per cent in favour of remaining in the EU, a majority of English respondents would be in favour of Brexit. This is because other UK nations are much more pro-European.

The National Centre for Social Research calculates that 55 per cent of Welsh, 64 per cent of Scots and 75 per cent of Ulster voters endorse the European Union on the basis of more than a dozen polls taken in the past year.

These numbers are also more stable than the equivalent figures in England.

So collectively, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish voters will contribute about 11 per cent of the pro-EU vote. English voters would only have to add another 40 per cent to the UK total to create an absolute majority keeping the UK in Europe. But that would mean most English voters had endorsed leaving the European Union – only to have their wishes overriden by the other UK nations.

On the other hand, if 53 per cent of English voters voted to leave the EU, this would be enough to take the UK out of Europe against the preference of a majority of Scots, Welsh and Ulster voters.

The only result which would keep the UK united would be a narrow English majority in favour of remaining in the EU. In that scenario, all four parts of the United Kingdom were of one mind. For this to be true we would expect to see a UK-wide majority of more than 53 per cent.

On the basis of current polling, that is unlikely. Of 30 major British polls I have analysed, only ten reported a pro-EU majority so large that most English respondents agreed with their fellow Britons. An additional 13 polls showed majorities of up to 53 percent in favour of remaining in the EU, but such a narrow lead implies that most English people would be held in Europe against their will. And seven of the 30 polls actually showed enough English opposition to the EU to overpower the other nations’ leads.

A conflict between Britain’s nations on future relations with the EU would be a huge headache to the Prime Minister. Part of the argument for Scottish independence in 2014 was that England would no longer be able to “impose” decisions on Scotland. An English-led withdrawal of the UK from the European Union could trigger another referendum in Scotland on the linked issues of leaving the UK and joining Europe. That would confront the Westminster government with simultaneously negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from Europe and Scotland’s withdrawal from the UK.

Yet the opposite outcome – a UK majority to remain in the EU, and an English majority to leave – would also be a nightmare for Downing Street. Conservative Eurosceptics could denounce the result as illegitimate, but it would be politically impossible for the Eurosceptics to win a referendum on the issue of England withdrawing from the United Kingdom.

Even if a narrow English majority went along with other Britons and voted to stay in the EU, there could still be an absolute majority of Conservatives voting to leave. Determined Eurosceptics could then adopt Jeremy Corbyn’s doctrine that the party leader should represent his party’s members. This argument could be used as a weapon to extract promises of further anti-EU actions from Cabinet ministers wanting to succeed David Cameron as the next Conservative prime minister.

Whatever the feelings of English voters on the emotive issue of Europe, there is no escaping the fact that the outcome of the forthcoming EU referendum will be decided by the total vote of the United Kingdom. That is the price England pays for being British.

Richard Rose is a professor of public policy at University of Strathclyde Glasgow and a commissioning fund awardee of The UK in a Changing Europe

Click here for the original article>>> Will the EU referendum trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom? – Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12114578/Will-the-EU-referendum-trigger-the-break-up-the-United-Kingdom.html

The new "PROJECT FEAR": – the EU!

 The New “PROJECT FEAR”: – the EU!

Those who want Brexit must campaign to make voters FEAR the EU. 

It is now orthodoxy that the way to people to vote No to any proposition on a referendum ballot paper is to make them fear the risk of change to something different. That has worked on the AV referendum and most notably in the Scottish Independence Referendum. The Scottish nationalists called this “Project Fear”.

As we can see almost daily in the newspapers it is clear that those that are going to campaign to Remain in the EU are going to use the fear of change to persuade the wavering centre-ground of opinion to vote to remain.

It is not enough for Eurosceptic MPs and MEPs to preach about the need for us to get control back of “our country” because of course this subliminally plays into the fear that the people that are getting control back of “our country” are “them” rather than “us” i.e. the People!

Even for those people that can understand the concept of sovereignty, it is not a sufficiently emotive basis for enough people to be willing to stand up and be counted. I think that the danger to a Brexit vote is the presentation of the risks that will be portrayed of voting to come out of the EU. 

For those who wish to achieve practical things in politics, it is not enough to wring their hands and say it is not fair or the ‘Remain Campaign’ are telling lies, the point is to be realistic and do what it takes to get a majority vote to Leave.

It is in this context that I have been turning over in my mind what kind of slogans and images need to be projected by the ‘Out Campaign’ to achieve an Leave Vote.

The newspaper report below gives a strong hint for those who have “eyes to see” and “ears to hear”! Because even in general elections “Project Fear” works well. 

It is no accident that the most successful image that the Conservatives deployed in the General Election was the above  “Project Fear” image of Miliband in the pocket of Salmond.

£40m Spent On General Election Campaign, But Winning Tory Attack Ad Was Put Together For Just £950


The Huffington Post | By Graeme Demianyk


The Tories spent more than £15.5 million on winning May’s general election – but was a canny investment of £950 the best investment they made?

A Conservative attack advert featuring a mini-Labour leader Ed Miliband literally in the pocket of Alex Salmond, the former leader of the Scottish National Party, was hailed by some Tory MPs as its most effective weapon in the battle.

Used on billboards, social media and leaflets, the ad writ large a centrepiece of the Tory campaign: a vote for Labour was a vote for a coalition with the SNP, and Scotland’s interests being put before the rest of the UK’s.

However far-fetched the claim, many felt it played well on the doorstep – especially in the South West where the Tories demolished the Lib Dems.

Electoral Commission records published today featuring a breakdown of how almost £40 million was spent by all parties in the campaign includes one where the Conservative Party paid £900 for the use of an image of Mr Salmond on a billboard.

Another shows how just £43 was lavished on an unflattering picture of Mr Miliband.

While possibly not the exact images featured in the final cut, they suggest how such a brutally simple advert could have been put together on a shoestring amid increasingly sophisticated campaigning techniques.

The Mirror calculated how the Tory election supremo, Lynton Crosby, pocketed £24 million for his work.

BuzzFeed News figured out the Tories spent £1.2 million on targeted Facebook advertising, compared to less than £16,500 by Labour.

In another attempt to have an iron-grip on the media presentation, the Conservatives spent more than £40,000 on a photographer to trail David Cameron and senior Tories during the election campaign.

The Tory general election campaign was tightly choreographed – such as “rallies” featuring supporters and made to look more impressive than they actually were

Mr Cameron received flak in 2010 for putting a personal photographer on the public payroll, but denied it was “vanity”.

The records show how I-Images were paid £40,119.39 over a series of 10 invoices. Accompanying receipts detail travel between Glasgow, Darlington, Crewe, London and Cornwall in March alone.

The move may well have been a sound one given unfortunate pictures of Ed Miliband, notably eating a bacon sandwich, which haunted the Labour leader.

The records do not say how much Labour paid for the infamous “Edstone”, and a party spokeswoman admitted the data was incomplete.

She said: “Due to an administrative error these invoices were not included with other items of campaign spend. We have informed the Electoral Commission and will seek to rectify this error as soon as possible.”

Almost £40 million was spent on the 2015 general election, with the Conservatives digging deepest at £15,587,956.

Labour spent £12,087,340, the Liberal Democrats’ £3,529,106 and Ukip’s £2,851,465, said the Electoral Commission.

But 2015 was still cheaper than the record-breaking 2005 campaign when £42 million was lavished on wooing voters.
 
For original article click here >>> £40m Spent On General Election Campaign, But Winning Tory Attack Ad Was Put Together For Just £950

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/20/election-spending-tory-salmond-miliband-ad_n_9030348.html?1453315724

Our first effort in this endeavour was the image below of Cameron in Merkel’s Nazi pocket which ticks some of the boxes but does not fully hit the bullseye of getting Remainers to HATE it and Leavers to LOVE it. That is the test which we have to apply to any image or slogan.

As that was not quite on target I wondered if this might do better?

What do you think? An idea for a caption is:-

 “Come to Mutti little man!”

The direction of travel of the European Union ought to be easy to attack since remaining in the EU is a vote to change along with the way that the EU will be changing over the next generation. The sort of things that we can see happening are more determined efforts to eradicate traditional European cultures and traditional ethnic groups in a multi-culturalist mix; the eradication of all traditional European values, especially Christianity and most especially Protestantism; the creation of a EU Super State with its own undemocratic governmental structure and central bank; the creation of an EU world-wide diplomatic presence and armed forces, the current focus being on an EU army; EU-wide police force; and an EU legal system; and elimination of any democratic impediments to the project, including an authoritarian crackdown on any activists opposed to it.

Each of those threats to our People’s way of life ought to be the focus of our “Project Fear” to wake people up to the fact that by voting to remain in the EU they are voting for change and change which will be at least as radical as any change that will occur if they vote to Leave!

What do you think? Have you any good ideas?